2021 Atlantic hurricane season (Kindofameme)
WORK IN PROGRESS I used my improved version of a //scratch.mit.edu/projects/257099685/ simulator to generate this season. You can create your own seasons using the link above. The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season that saw an unusually high number of tropical cyclones pass near or over the Azores. The season officially started on June 1, 2021, although tropical cyclone formation is possible at any time of the year, demonstrated when Tropical Storm Ana formed on May 12. The season ended on December 1, 2021, although Tropical Storm Larry extended the season duration by 4 days. Most forecasters predicted a near to above average season owing to favourable conditions and warmer than average sea surface temperatures; however, the season had very sporadic and unusual periods of inactivity. Only one tropical cyclone each formed in August and September, well below the climatological averages. October on the other hand was well above average with four tropical storms, three of which became hurricanes. Despite the near-average activity, overall impacts were minimal. Hurricane Elsa became the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall on the Azores, claiming the lives of 10 people and leaving multiple areas devastated. Similarly, Henri affected the Azores as a weakening tropical cyclone causing a further fatality. Elsewhere, the central Gulf Coast was affected by several tropical cyclones, however they were all weak systems. This season's activity was reflected with an ACE of 73, which is classified as near-normal. Seasonal summary Timeline ImageSize = width:800 height:210 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/05/2020 till:31/12/2020 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/05/2020 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<_62_km/h_(<_39_mph) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_63-117_km/h_(39-73_mph) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_118-153_km/h_(74-95_mph) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_154-177_km/h_(96-110_mph) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_178-209-km/h_(111-130_mph) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_210-249_km/h_(131-155_mph) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥250_km/h_(≥156_mph) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:12/05/2020 till:16/05/2020 color:TS text:Ana (TS) from:01/06/2020 till:08/06/2020 color:TS text:Bill (TS) from:25/06/2020 till:26/06/2020 color:TS text:Claudette (SS) from:30/07/2020 till:02/08/2020 color:TS text:Danny (TS) from:30/08/2020 till:07/09/2020 color:C3 text:Elsa (C3) from:28/09/2020 till:04/10/2020 color:C1 text:Fred (C1) barset:break from:08/10/2020 till:15/10/2020 color:C2 text:Grace (C2) from:18/10/2020 till:19/10/2020 color:TD text: barset:break barset:skip from:21/10/2020 till:24/10/2020 color:TS text:Ida (TS) from:19/10/2020 till:30/10/2020 color:C3 text:Henri (C3) from:30/10/2020 till:06/11/2020 color:C2 text:Julian (C2) from:21/11/2020 till:22/11/2020 color:TD text: barset:break barset:skip barset:skip barset:skip barset:skip from:24/11/2020 till:27/11/2020 color:TS text:Kate (TS) from:01/12/2020 till:04/12/2020 color:TS text:Larry (TS) bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/05/2020 till:31/05/2020 text:May from:01/06/2020 till:30/06/2020 text:June from:01/07/2020 till:31/07/2020 text:July from:01/08/2020 till:31/08/2020 text:August from:01/09/2020 till:30/09/2020 text:September from:01/10/2020 till:31/10/2020 text:October from:01/11/2020 till:30/11/2020 text:November from:01/12/2020 till:31/12/2020 text:December TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:617,30 text:"Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)" Systems Tropical Storm Ana A non-tropical area of low pressure formed on May 10 to the northeast of the Bahamas and began tracking northwest slowly, rapidly organising as it did so. On May 12, the NHC began issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ana, as it had skipped the depression stage. It intensified gradually, peaking with winds of 65 mph before turning to the north and making landfall near Morehead City, North Carolina with winds of 60 mph, claiming 6 lives as it tracked across the east coast. Afterwards the storm rapidly degenerated and dissipated over Rhode Island. Tropical Storm Bill Bill originated from an area of low pressure that was being tracked by the NHC since May 26. Organisation was slow due to moderate wind shear, with the storm being classified as Tropical Storm Bill only on June 2. The storm curved north, and then to the north-east as it peaked with winds of 60 mph. After moving into cooler waters, the storm accelerated while weakening rapidly, dissipating south of Nova Scotia. Subtropical Storm Claudette Claudette was a short-lived subtropical storm that originated from a cold-core low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. An increase in convective activity led to the designation of Subtropical Depression Three on June 25. Six hours later, the subtropical storm was named Claudette, and it strengthened to a peak intensity of 45 mph, but high wind shear tore the storm apart the next day as its remnants dissipated over Alabama. Tropical Storm Danny Danny originated from a long-tracked tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on July 18. As it moved west, unusually high wind shear inhibited the strengthening of the wave. However, upon entering the southern Caribbean Sea, the wave increased in organisation leading to the designation of Tropical Depression Four. Six hours later the storm was named Danny, and slightly warmer waters allowed the storm to strengthen. Peaking with winds of 65 mph, it made landfall in the Gracias a Dios department in Honduras, still retaining a tropical storm structure as it made its second landfall south of Belize. Thereafter, the storm dissipated over Central America. Its remnants contributed to the formation of Tropical Storm Ignacio in the Eastern Pacific. Hurricane Elsa Hurricane Elsa was tied with Henri in the same season for being the strongest tropical cyclone in the 2021 season. After nearly a month of inactivity in the basin, a vigorous tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 29. The wave rapidly strengthened south of the Cape Verdes, leading to the naming of Tropical Storm Elsa on August 30. Almost immediately, a break in a subtropical ridge caused Elsa to make a northward turn much sooner than most cyclones, strengthening to Category 1 status on August 31. At the end of September 1, Elsa began to rapidly strengthen despite only marginally favourable conditions. Its windspeeds increased to 120 mph from 85 mph in a 12-hour time span. The storm maintained major hurricane intensity for two and a half days as it curved to the northeast. By this point the NHC were issuing extremely rare hurricane warnings for the Azores, in anticipation of the storm making landfall. Elsa weakened slightly to winds of 105 mph by the time it moved over Ilha do Pico. This made it the strongest tropical cyclone to ever make a direct hit on the Azores in the satellite era. In all, Elsa was responsible for 10 deaths across the islands. It then recurved north and dissipated northwest of Iberia. Hurricane Fred After nearly a month in which no tropical cyclones formed in the Atlantic basin, another tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on September 27. Similar to Elsa, the wave rapidly organised and was named Fred on September 28 by the NHC. Strengthening was modest, with the storm attaining hurricane status on September 30, and strengthening to a peak of 90 mph. Thereafter the storm turned to the north and began to weaken due to unfavourable conditions, and dissipated on October 4. Hurricane Grace Hurricane Grace was a strong tropical cyclone that never threatened land during its life cycle. It formed from a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on October 4. While situated about halfway between Africa and the Leeward Islands, it became Tropical Depression Seven on October 8. On October 9, the storm strengthened into Tropical Storm Grace. Strengthening was very slow, with the storm's intensity mostly remaining static until it encountered unusually favourable conditions in the subtropics. While about 500 miles west of the Azores it strengthened quickly to Category 2 status, almost achieving Category 3, but rapidly weakened before it could do so. Tropical Storm Ida Ida originated from a tropical wave that organised into Tropical Depression Eight while southeast of Puerto Rico. It moved west without much change in strength, until it degenerated into a wave due to land interaction. On October 21, the storm regenerated and gradually strengthened again, being named Ida, however it only maintained tropical storm intensity for six hours before wind shear ripped the storm apart, its remnants moving over Louisiana. Hurricane Henri Henri was the second major hurricane of the 2021 season, but had much less of an impact than Elsa. Forming from a tropical wave, it was steered to the north-west around a ridge to its east. While moving north-west, it rapidly intensified, peaking with winds of 120 mph as it began a sharp turn to the east. After this, the storm gradually weakened and passed within 50 miles of the western Azores as a tropical depression, causing heavy precipitation and exacerbating the effects of Elsa. Hurricane Julian Julian was the 5th hurricane of the season. Forming from a tropical wave, it moved north-west and quickly strengthened, attaining Category 2 status by November 1 due to unusually favourable conditions. However, this was short-lived as its eyewall fell apart, but it survived before being absorbed by an extratropical cyclone northeast of Bermuda. Tropical Storm Kate Kate was a weak tropical cyclone that initially formed as Tropical Depression Eleven, but degenerated to a remnant low soon after. But two days later, it re-organised, forming into Tropical Storm Kate and making landfall in Alabama as a tropical depression. Tropical Storm Larry Larry was an off-season cyclone that formed just north of Cuba on December 1 from an area of low pressure. It gradually strengthened in the Gulf of Mexico, but high wind shear prevented it from strengthening beyond 50 mph and it moved over Louisiana as a weak tropical storm. However, its remnants combined with a particularly devastating nor'easter. Storm names The following is a list of names used for tropical storms and hurricanes that formed in the North Atlantic in 2021. This was the same list used for the 2015 season, with the exception of Elsa and Julian, which replaced Erika and Joaquin. In 2022, the World Meteorological Organization retired the name Elsa due to its extensive impacts in the Azores. Its replacement for the 2027 season is Eugenie. Storm effects This is a table of all of the storms that have formed during the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their names, duration, peak strength, areas affected, damage, and death totals. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2021 USD. __FORCETOC__ Category:Atlantic hurricane seasons Category:Randomly generated seasons